Thom Tillis sure doesn’t seem optimistic about Republicans winning NC | Opinion
Even U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis doesn’t seem optimistic about his party’s chances of holding onto his seat in the upcoming midterms.
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In a recent TV appearance, CNN’s Jake Tapper asked Tillis if North Carolina is a “lost cause for Republicans” as Michael Whatley continues to trail his opponent, former Gov. Roy Cooper, by a sizable margin in most polls.
The retiring senator’s response was telling.
“To me, it’s a data-driven decision. If we have a path to victory, then we double down on it,” Tillis said. ”If we don’t, we move where we have the opportunity … this has to be about the higher purpose of keeping a majority in the Senate, not any one candidate.”
Tapper then asked Tillis if the data shows North Carolina should not be a top priority. Tillis responded that when polls show a candidate trailing by high single digits or double digits, “it’s approaching a point where it’s going to be difficult to make it up.”
Tillis did note that a mistake by Democrats could “help Whatley maybe get some steam here in the final days of the election.” He referenced the “Akin and Mourdock moments” from the 2012 election, when blunders by two candidates led to losses in races Republicans were favored to win, ultimately costing the party a majority in the U.S. Senate. (Tillis also could have referenced his own election from 2020, which he was predicted to lose until a last-minute scandal deflated Cal Cunningham’s campaign.)
But Tillis acknowledged that Republicans may have bigger battles to fight elsewhere.
“The reality is, we have to keep a majority,” Tillis said. “We’ve got to make sure Susan Collins wins. We’ve got to focus on Alaska. We’ve got to focus on Ohio. But we’ve also got to focus on some of these states that are popping up as competitive. Texas, for example.”
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Tillis is far from the first Republican to signal it might be time for the party to move on from North Carolina. In the past week, Republicans have seemed increasingly pessimistic about Whatley’s chances of winning. One Republican super PAC already canceled $6.5 million in ad reservations, and party strategists are privately acknowledging that more resources may have to be pulled in coming weeks.
But it’s especially significant coming from Tillis, who is the current occupant of the seat that Whatley is trying to win. If there’s anyone who might believe in Whatley’s ability to pull off an upset, it would probably be Tillis, whose own wins in 2014 and 2020 defied expectations.
However, Tillis was also a far more strategic candidate than Whatley is, and a smarter one. He’s always been a savvy political operator, willing to contort himself and his beliefs to meet the moment, even if he was never particularly graceful about it. His decisions too often seemed to be led not by principle, but by what might cost him and his party the least number of voters.
Whatley does not seem to be making those same calculations. The strategy he’s chosen has likely cost him the greatest number of voters, especially independents and moderates. Rather than distancing himself from President Trump, as Tillis previously advised, he’s doubled down on his loyalty. On the campaign trail, Whatley spends most of his time sharing horror stories about crime, which is not particularly important to voters right now. It’s not a recipe for success, especially in a tough election cycle.
Tillis surely wants his party to keep his seat in November, but he’s also correct that Republicans need to think tactically — and their path to retaining a Senate majority probably won’t run through North Carolina.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten covers politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
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