Republicans are already starting to give up on Michael Whatley in NC | Opinion
Michael Whatley isn’t giving up on his U.S. Senate campaign, but it sure seems like his party might.
Read more Will NC education leaders step in amid CMS turmoil? What state law allows
A steady trickle of media reports suggests that Republicans have lost hope of winning North Carolina, as former Gov. Roy Cooper’s lead in the polls is proving difficult for Whatley to overcome. The Washington Post reported that Republicans believe Whatley’s path to victory is narrowing, and resources could be pulled “if Whatley doesn’t make sufficient progress in the coming week or two.” POLITICO reported that Republicans acknowledge they may have to “cede North Carolina entirely” by October.
Those hits are already coming. One Republican super PAC has already pulled $6.5 million in ad reservations — nearly erasing the GOP’s spending advantage in the state. Data from The New York Times shows Republicans outspending Democrats by just $440,000 now, a far cry from the multimillion-dollar edge they maintain in other states.
There’s not a ton of confidence inside Congress, either: U.S. Rep. Nancy Mace said on social media Wednesday that Republicans will “for SURE” lose North Carolina. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, left North Carolina off of his list of top targets in a presentation to colleagues this week and suggested the group would focus their resources elsewhere.
The increased pessimism about the North Carolina race comes even as President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have traveled to the state to campaign on Whatley’s behalf, hoping to drum up enthusiasm among the party’s base. But with the president’s approval rating lower than ever, and gas prices hovering well above $4 a gallon, there’s only so much that can be done.
The most recent poll in the race, released Thursday by High Point University, shows Whatley trailing Cooper by eight points. That, at least, is a brighter outlook than other polls that show him down by double digits. But it also showed Cooper at the 50% mark, and if he stays there, it won’t matter how much Whatley can narrow the gap.
It’s an unfamiliar position for Republicans in North Carolina, a purple state that has nonetheless been reliably red in federal elections for nearly 15 years. In 2022, it was national Democrats who were losing faith in winning here. It’s a fairly unexpected position, too, even knowing that this midterm environment would be favorable for Democrats. There was a time that this race was expected to be the most expensive in the country, and perhaps in history, with some experts predicting it could reach as high as $800 million. So far, we’ve only seen a fraction of that.
Read more 4 feet of flooding as storm risks, NC Highway 12 closures continue on Outer Banks
But that’s just how this election cycle is going. The fact that Republicans are having to abandon states like North Carolina and Georgia in order to play defense in places like Texas, Iowa and Alaska pretty much sums it up: traditional battlegrounds are favoring Democrats, while some red states are becoming battlegrounds.
Cooper, for his part, is still running like the race is a toss-up. His fundraising emails constantly lead with warnings like “not looking good” and “their lies are working,” and he’s warned his party not to get complacent, given North Carolina’s history of close statewide races.
To his point, it doesn’t appear that Republicans intend to abandon North Carolina completely. Whatley himself may have a slim chance of winning, but there are Republicans further down the ballot who are still in competitive races, and they, too, benefit from investment in Whatley’s race. The better Whatley’s performance, the bigger boost those candidates can receive, and Republicans are still trying to avoid major losses in congressional and state legislative races and increase their majority on the N.C. Supreme Court.
As one GOP strategist told The Washington Post: “[Whatley’s] not in a left-for-dead situation. There will be a pulse until Election Day.”
The problem for Whatley is that, right now, his campaign needs more than a pulse to stay alive.
Deputy Opinion Editor Paige Masten covers politics and the 2026 elections for The Charlotte Observer and The News & Observer.
Read more Change to NC film incentives causes major production to leave. Are workers next?
