We may be facing the strongest El Niño on record. What that could mean for NC

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An already “super” El Niño is gaining strength with meteorologists and other weather watchers now predicting “a historic event.”

“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” according to a new report from the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center. “With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed.”

“In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27,” according to the Climate Prediction Center’s Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, weather briefing.

El Niño, a climate pattern where parts of the Pacific Ocean heat up, weakening the trade winds that helped sailors navigate, tends to bring wetter winters to North Carolina and other southern states. The northern part of the United States tend to see warmer and drier weather conditions. It officially formed in June, earlier than normal.

The Climate Prediction Center’s forecast is split between “equal chances” and “above normal” for seasonal rain and other precipitation for October, November and December in North Carolina.

“We’re pretty confident that it’s going to be a strong El Niño, which tends to mean a couple of things for us here in the southeast,” said Jonathan Blaes, meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service’s Raleigh Office. “That generally means a more unsettled or stormier pattern with frequent or more frequent precipitation and storm systems.”

Those extra storms mean more clouds, including at night, which can make the winter months warmer, he said. But that doesn’t automatically mean a warm, rainy winter and with no snow.

“If you’re a snow lover, and you think this is the end of the world, I wouldn’t necessarily think that,” Blaes said. “Just that there’ll be more storm systems, and if we get the other ingredients of maybe a brief period of some colder air near the ground, then we might get a couple more chances at winter storms.”

Three past North Carolina El Niño winters — in 1997-1998, 2009-2010 and 2015-2016 — rank among the state’s top ten wettest on record, according to the North Carolina State Climate Office.

Inspired by a story from The Wichita Eagle in Kansas.

This story was originally published September 11, 2026 at 1:46 PM with the headline “We may be facing the strongest El Niño on record. What that could mean for NC.”