A guide to NASCAR Cup race at North Wilkesboro: Who will win? Predictions, odds
Sunday night will usher in the first NASCAR Cup Series points-paying race at North Wilkesboro Speedway for the first time in 30 years.
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But ask the drivers, and that’s old news.
The vaunted venue in North Carolina — the same one that was left in virtually abandoned disrepair in 1996 and then was resurrected in 2023 — has been the site of the NASCAR All-Star Race for the last three years. The track’s been repaved. The three All-Star Races featured sellout crowds, and on Saturday, NASCAR announced a fourth consecutive sellout at the 0.625-mile oval.
So it’s here. And it’s here to stay, the industry acknowledges.
But what is it that keeps drivers excited to run here?
The track, simply, is fun to run on.
“It moves around a lot,” Carson Hocevar said of North Wilkesboro. “You can run right against the fence, or you go on the bottom and move around. Place tends to rubber up too. I just like how there are so many different ways to go about it.
“If your car’s not very good, there are probably like four or five different options where you can make your stuff a little bit better. There are just so many ways to attack the track.”
That’s not to say drivers don’t acknowledge how different Sunday might be to years past. The All-Star Race, after all, is a winner-take-all sort of exhibition where $1 million is on the line; finishing second and dead last mean the same thing. There will also be more cars on the track than before, and that’ll present a few more agents of chaos — from more rubber being laid down (increased grip) and more lapped traffic (the bane of race leaders’ existence).
“Racing for the lead in the All-Star, I don’t think I’ve experienced anything more intense than that,” Christopher Bell, last year’s winner at North Wilkesboro, told The Charlotte Observer. “But whenever you’re in the back of the pack, and you’re not racing for the lead, your effort level dwindles. …
“Whereas this year, you still have everything to race for. So while the race for the lead will change, I think the racing through the pack will be much more intense.”
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With this in mind, here’s everything you should know heading into the racing this weekend, including two Observer reporters’ picks.
Here are the Top 10 driver odds to win the race at North Carolina’s vaunted short track, according to CBS Sports as of Saturday evening: Ryan Blaney (+480), Denny Hamlin (+500), Christopher Bell (+500), Kyle Larson (+900), Tyler Reddick (+1000), Joey Logano (+1100), Chase Elliott (+1400), William Byron (+1500), Chase Briscoe (+1600), Ty Gibbs (+1800).
Scott Fowler: Chase Elliott. First of all, I’m really happy to see North Wilkesboro host this race. Absolutely cool in so many ways. To see NASCAR embrace its history — after a period where it seemed to be driving fast away from it — is heartening. Secondly, give me Chase Elliott in this one. He’s a fine short-track racer and just won at Martinsville in March. I’m figuring on a wide-open race, with Chase coming through at the end.
Alex Zietlow: Kyle Larson. Y’all remember what happened the last time North Wilkesboro Speedway experienced a “first”? As in three years ago, when NASCAR returned to the hallowed N.C. venue and put on the first of three annual All-Star Races here — the first NASCAR racing of any kind at North Wilkesboro since 1996? Kyle Larson does. That’s because he won here that weekend. He swept it, actually, winning the Truck Series race and the Cup race. And I think he’ll experience success here again. The defending Cup Series champion is one of the best short-track racers on the circuit — one of the best racers in the world, period — and is looking to get his first win of the season here. It’s a cop-out answer, maybe, because Larson is so talented. But sometimes what’s safe is also what’s right.
Cup qualifying was washed out Saturday, and thus the starting grid was set by the rule book. Here’s the starting lineup.
Some penalty housekeeping: Austin Hill and Connor Zilish each failed pre-race inspection twice and thus will not be able to make pit selections Sunday. Ross Chastain failed inspection three times and thus will be required to serve a drive-through penalty at the start of the race in addition to losing pit selection and a team member for the race.
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