{"id":2377,"date":"2026-06-28T18:08:02","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T18:08:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377"},"modified":"2026-06-28T18:08:02","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T18:08:02","slug":"former-nasdaq-ceo-robert-greifeld-warns-800b-in-spacex-lockup-shares-expiring-by-october-is-the-dominant-risk-factor-for-spcx","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377","title":{"rendered":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX"},"content":{"rendered":"

I have now covered SpaceX<\/a>‘s post-IPO story from at least two major angles. Jim Cramer<\/a>‘s verdict that it “couldn’t sustain the walk-up,” and Doug Kass<\/a>‘s short thesis. My colleague also covered Michael Burry<\/a> studying the trade and walking away.<\/p>\n

Read more Soccer Star Lucas Trejo\u2019s Wife, Kids Killed in Deadly Argentina Earthquakes<\/a><\/p>\n

I have noticed one thing. Each voice has added something to the picture. Yes, that’s for sure. But the conversation that stuck with me most came from Robert Greifeld<\/a>, the former Chairman and CEO of Nasdaq itself.<\/p>\n

When the man who runs the exchange SpaceX chose to list on sits down on CNBC and gives you a blunt assessment of what actually matters for the stock and not the aspirational story, but the mechanics, that is worth paying close attention to.<\/p>\n

According to Yahoo Finance<\/a>, SPCX closed June 26 at $153.23, down sharply from its all-time high of $225.64 reached June 16, just days after its record-setting $135 IPO<\/a>. The stock is now trading 32% below that peak.<\/p>\n

Also Read: SpaceX Latest News and Stories<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Greifeld was direct in a way that financial executives rarely are on television. His framework stripped the SpaceX story down to two competing forces, and he was clear about which one wins.<\/p>\n

On the S&P 500<\/a> fast-track rules that allowed SpaceX’s listing, Robert had this to say.<\/p>\n

“I would say just very clearly when the rules were set, it never contemplated a $75 billion IPO. IPOs were small back in the day. And they were concerned with having enough float out there. So, $75 billion is enough float for a public company<\/a>, that’s for sure. The rules didn’t reflect the reality that exists today.” Robert Greifeld said in a CNBC<\/a> interview.<\/p>\n

More SpaceX:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Asked about the Nasdaq-100 inclusion expected in early July, Robert said this.<\/p>\n

“You do the math on what the likely buying power is. The cues are coming in. It’s somewhat muted. It’s going to happen over time. It’ll clearly be a positive.”<\/p>\n

Now here is where Robert got specific about the real risk. <\/p>\n

“The dominant factor here is you have $800 billion of locked-up shares that will become unlocked between now and the end of October. A lot of these shares were early investors. Whether they’re getting a 10x return or an 11x return, they’re going to be relatively price-insensitive. Their main issue, after waiting a long time, some of them over a decade, is liquidity<\/a>.”<\/p>\n

My read of that framing is that index fund<\/a> buying provides a floor, but $800 billion in unlocked shares held by decade-long investors who have already won spectacularly is a ceiling that the market’s incremental demand from passive funds cannot easily offset.<\/p>\n

What made the CNBC segment particularly interesting was Greifeld’s disclosure that he personally flipped SpaceX shares on its debut day. Not through his hedge fund<\/a>, Cornerstone Financial Technology Management<\/a>, which operates on a quantitative systematic basis, but as an individual investor making a judgment call.<\/p>\n

His reasoning was honest in a way you do not often hear from Wall Street<\/a> veterans. <\/p>\n

“When you think about this stock trading at 100 times revenue, it’s hard to come up with a model that gets you there. If you discount money at 10% over 30 years, you have to have a tremendous amount of money 30 years out. So it doesn’t meet fundamental criteria, the way I look at it. But clearly it meets aspirational criteria. And to bet against Elon has not been a smart move over the years. So from my perspective, it’s a speculative bet based on what you believe is possible.”<\/p>\n

Read more Eric McCormack Describes Sad \u2018Will & Grace\u2019 Reunion at Jimmy Burrows\u2019 Funeral<\/a><\/p>\n

That is as clear-eyed a framing of the SpaceX trade as I have seen from anyone with genuine skin in the game.<\/p>\n

Spencer Platt\/Getty Images<\/a><\/p>\n

Greifeld’s fundamental concern is not new, but it has independent support from multiple directions.<\/p>\n

TheStreet<\/a> reported that Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens<\/a> maintained a fair value estimate of $62 per share even after SpaceX’s IPO, and lowered it modestly following the $60 billion Cursor acquisition, citing sizable dilution. <\/p>\n

Even after the post-peak selloff, SPCX trades at more than 90 times 2025 revenue on a company that posted a net loss of $4.9 billion for the year, according to CNBC<\/a> reporting. Total accumulated losses since founding in 2002 stand at $41.3 billion.<\/p>\n

Related: SpaceX volatility just entered ordinary 401(k)s<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The only profitable segment is Starlink, which generated approximately $4.4 billion in earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT<\/a>) in 2025. The Artificial Intelligence<\/a> (AI<\/a>) business lost $6.4 billion. The rocket business also runs at a loss. In Q1 2026, net losses deepened to $4.3 billion as AI data center scale-up costs accelerated, Thestreet<\/a> reported.<\/p>\n

SpaceX does carry meaningful contracted future revenue. Google<\/a>‘s $30 billion cloud services agreement running through mid-2029 and Anthropic’s roughly $45 billion deal over approximately three years provide visibility that most newly public companies cannot point to.<\/p>\n

Those contracts are real. But they are already known, already priced into a $2 trillion-plus market cap<\/a>.<\/p>\n

CNBC<\/a> reports that SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100 on July 7. This inclusion will trigger mandatory buying from index funds tracking the index. <\/p>\n

That is a genuine near-term catalyst. But as Greifeld framed it, the quantum of passive fund buying is muted relative to the $800 billion in locked-up shares coming free between now and October.<\/p>\n

The lockup dynamic is the make-or-break test Greifeld identified. Not the technology, not the revenue model, not even Elon Musk<\/a>‘s track record. It is the simple mechanical reality that early investors who have waited a decade for liquidity and are sitting on extraordinary returns will not hold out for an extra 10% gain. They will sell.<\/p>\n

The next few months will answer the question of whether SpaceX’s aspirational story is large enough to absorb the selling.<\/p>\n

Related: SpaceX’s 32% crash may force Musk into radical move<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Arena Media Brands, LLC THESTREET is a registered trademark of TheStreet, Inc.<\/i><\/p>\n

Read more Dangerous heat wave to scorch North Carolina on America\u2019s 250th birthday<\/a><\/p>\n

This story was originally published June 28, 2026 at 1:07 PM.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have now covered SpaceX's post-IPO story from at least two major angles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2375,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-read-todays-edition"],"yoast_head":"\nFormer Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX - \u0421harlotte Relocation Guide<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX - \u0421harlotte Relocation Guide\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I have now covered SpaceX's post-IPO story from at least two major angles.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"\u0421harlotte Relocation Guide\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-06-28T18:08:02+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"admin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"admin\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8dbe691609d05fbc6dbaa5c440b54a93\"},\"headline\":\"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-28T18:08:02+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377\"},\"wordCount\":1039,\"commentCount\":0,\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Read today's Edition\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377\",\"name\":\"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX - \u0421harlotte Relocation Guide\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2026-06-28T18:08:02+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8dbe691609d05fbc6dbaa5c440b54a93\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2026\\\/06\\\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":675},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?p=2377#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/\",\"name\":\"\u0421harlotte Relocation Guide\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8dbe691609d05fbc6dbaa5c440b54a93\",\"name\":\"admin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/secure.gravatar.com\\\/avatar\\\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g\",\"caption\":\"admin\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\"],\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/charlotterelocationguide.com\\\/?author=1\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX - \u0421harlotte Relocation Guide","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX - \u0421harlotte Relocation Guide","og_description":"I have now covered SpaceX's post-IPO story from at least two major angles.","og_url":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377","og_site_name":"\u0421harlotte Relocation Guide","article_published_time":"2026-06-28T18:08:02+00:00","author":"admin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"admin","Est. reading time":"5 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377"},"author":{"name":"admin","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8dbe691609d05fbc6dbaa5c440b54a93"},"headline":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX","datePublished":"2026-06-28T18:08:02+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377"},"wordCount":1039,"commentCount":0,"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg","articleSection":["Read today's Edition"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377","url":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377","name":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX - \u0421harlotte Relocation Guide","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg","datePublished":"2026-06-28T18:08:02+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8dbe691609d05fbc6dbaa5c440b54a93"},"breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#primaryimage","url":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/6cab22ffd98a261d1816eab973b12276.jpg","width":1200,"height":675},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?p=2377#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Former Nasdaq CEO Robert Greifeld warns $800B in SpaceX lockup shares expiring by October is the dominant risk factor for SPCX"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/#website","url":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/","name":"\u0421harlotte Relocation Guide","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/#\/schema\/person\/8dbe691609d05fbc6dbaa5c440b54a93","name":"admin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","contentUrl":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/50b1ad2e498f523425ee0a8cc5180a210646db1622662a3d56cc405d3e0c346a?s=96&d=mm&r=g","caption":"admin"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com"],"url":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/?author=1"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2377\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2375"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/charlotterelocationguide.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}