Seat flips? Surprise upsets? Charlotte-area legislative races to watch in 2026
Only a handful of Charlotte-area legislative races are expected to be competitive on Election Day, and they’re drawing money and attention in the final stretch of the campaign season.
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The results of key races will impact the balance of power in Raleigh, where Democrats hope to pick up seats in the General Assembly and Republicans are trying to maintain their majorities in the state House and Senate.
In southeast Mecklenburg County, Democratic state Sen. Woodson Bradley faces a well-funded Republican challenger in Stacie McGinn, a rematch of their hotly contested 2024 race. And Democrats see potential opportunities in the shifting demographics of some Cabarrus County districts, too.
An anti-establishment mood among the electorate, as evidenced by upsets in primaries earlier this year, could spell unexpected trouble for some incumbents, UNC Charlotte political scientist Eric Heberlig noted.
“Typically, when we’re looking at these races, we’re looking at, ‘Well, what challengers have political experience? Have run campaigns before? Who has money to run advertising? Where are the parties and interest groups spending?’” he said. “But we may indeed have some of these races where none of those or very few of those indicators are present, and you just have somebody win.”
State Senate District 42, where Bradley is running again against McGinn, is among the most evenly divided in North Carolina. The district is 50.07% Democrat to 47.73% Republican, according to Dave’s Redistricting, which analyzes voting data to determine partisan lean.
Bradley won by just over 200 votes in 2024 after a recount. She’s raising significant money in 2026 to try to keep her seat.
Campaign finance reports show Bradley raised $233,177.48 in the second quarter of 2026, the most recent figures available. Her campaign spent $76,440.73 from February to June, leaving $240,069.44 for the peak of election season. While Bradley reported many small-dollar individual contributions, she also got money from the Democratic Women of Mecklenburg County, EMILY’s List, NC Realtors PAC and NC Sierra Club PAC.
McGinn raised $62,056.17 in the same period and spent $40,121.72, leaving $275,868.10 for the final stretch of her campaign. But she has a $300,000 outstanding loan from herself. Her donors include Hendrick Automotive Group Chairman J.R. Hendrick III and the Mecklenburg County Republican Party.
After losing in 2024, McGinn has repeatedly raised concerns on the campaign trail about Bradley’s absence from a vote in the Senate on legislation named for the Ukrainian refugee fatally stabbed on Charlotte’s light rail. The Republican accused Bradley of lying about the circumstances of her absence, an allegation Bradley’s campaign said was unfounded.
Heberlig said voters may be more immune to negative campaigning in today’s political climate.
“It’s unclear how much of it affects voters, just because they’re kind of used to it and tune it out and expect the personal attacks,” he said. “… In some ways, it’s similar to money in that you know both sides are doing it, so it kind of cancels one another out.”
Former Republican Charlotte City Councilman and Trump administration official Tariq Bokhari said down-ballot candidates like McGinn and Bradley have to find ways to cut through the noise of current events and explain what they have to offer on hot-button issues.
Bokhari, who defeated Democrats in a district with similar demographics while on City Council, said it was easier for him to win in off-year municipal elections.
“This is a different ball game altogether and a lot harder,” he said.
Veteran Charlotte-area political strategist and organizer Colette Forrest predicted Bradley may benefit from displeasure among voters with the Trump administration, particularly on economic issues.
“There is no district, no city, no state, be it rural or urban, that is isolated from the issues that we’re talking about,” said Forrest, the former chair of the Black Political Caucus of Charlotte-Mecklenburg.
Bradley and other key legislative candidates attended a North Carolina Democratic Party event with Gov. Josh Stein in east Charlotte on Wednesday.
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“Too many North Carolina families are working hard and still struggling to pay the bills. This Republican-controlled legislature has refused to act on my solutions to provide working families with long-term relief,” Stein told the Observer in a statement. “Instead, North Carolina families have watched Republicans protect tax breaks for data centers while passing bills that drive up utility bills for everyone else. Families deserve relief, and I look forward to working with allies in a new legislature in January that’s ready to get the job done.”
The Election Day intrigue could spread beyond the Mecklenburg County border.
Democrats narrowly won a state House seat in Cabarrus County in 2022, but they lost it after redistricting to Republican Jonathan Almond in 2024. Almond’s House District 73 is now 44.66% Democrat to 52.98% Republican, according to Dave’s Redistricting.
He faces a challenge from Democrat Thomas Monks in the general election.
Almond has a significant financial advantage, raising $30,355 in the second quarter of 2026. His campaign spent $26,465.79 in the same period, leaving $18,747.84 on hand for the final months of the race. Monks raised $3,747.65 during that time and spent $1,749.39, leaving his campaign with $2,586.43 for the fall.
More money is flowing into Cabarrus County’s state Senate District 34, where Republican Kevin Crutchfield is running against Democrat April Cook after winning a GOP primary in March. The district is 43.56% Democrat to 54.16% Republican, according to Dave’s Redistricting.
Crutchfield raised $97,802.89 in the second quarter, including a $50,000 loan from himself. His campaign spent $52,216.65 to leave $66,863.53 for the final stretch of the race. His campaign has three outstanding loans from himself totaling $77,000.
Cook raised $100,059.38 in the second quarter and spent $46,257.09, leaving $61,029.51 for the homestretch of the campaign. Her donors include former Concord Mayor William Dusch and Emily’s List. Cook has also received In-kind contributions from the North Carolina Democratic Party and was also included in Stein’s Wednesday event in Charlotte.
Wins in Cabarrus would be a sign of the kind of strong performance Democrats nationwide are looking for after months of strong polling results in battleground areas, Heberlig said.
“If there is a blue wave, Cabarrus County would be the first place I would look for it,” he said. “That is a traditionally Republican county, but it has been moving towards the Democrats in the last couple elections at the presidential level.”
Forrest said even a close loss for Democrats in Cabarrus could be a sign the party is continuing to make inroads in the county as Charlotte’s growth stretches into more suburban and rural areas.
“It takes time. It doesn’t happen all at once,” she said.
Another hotly contested race is southeast Mecklenburg’s House District 105, where Democrats are once again trying to oust Republican Rep. Tricia Cotham.
She faces former Matthews town Commissioner Ken McCool in the general election in 2026 after narrowly defeating a Democrat who raised more than $1 million in 2024.
And incumbent Democrat Beth Helfrich is running for a second term representing North Mecklenburg’s state House District 98. She’s challenged this election cycle by Republican John Rhodes, who previously served in the state legislature.
While most eyes are on the few contested legislative districts left in North Carolina, Heberlig predicts voters’ dissatisfaction with the current political system could end up putting some unexpected incumbents in jeopardy. He pointed to challengers pulling off upsets in primary elections earlier this year in North Carolina and across the country.
“I don’t doubt that there’s a Democratic tilt to the national mood, but we also have a good indicator of an anti-incumbent, anti-establishment mood, and that increases the probability that we’re going to see a few out-of-the-blue upsets,” he said.
Democrats down the ballot in particular could benefit from Republicans cutting back their financial support for GOP U.S. Senate candidate Michael Whatley in recent weeks, Heberlig added.
“That makes it a whole lot easier for Democrats to squeak one out in areas where we wouldn’t expect it,” he said.
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